Quadrupling New Housing: A Blueprint for High-Cost Cities
High-cost cities like California’s major metros and New York City aren’t just grappling with expensive real estate—they’re stuck in a housing crisis that demands bold, smart reforms. Today, I want to share a clear-eyed, no-nonsense blueprint for ramping up housing construction by four times what we’re seeing today. It’s not just wishful thinking. With the right zoning reforms, streamlined permitting, and community engagement, we can make walkable, transit-friendly, multifamily neighborhoods the norm.
The Challenge at Hand
Let’s get real: California and NYC have been running a housing deficit for far too long. In California, annual construction hovers around 100,000 units when the target is closer to 400,000. New York City isn’t far behind—averaging about 20,000 units a year when 80,000 is what’s needed. The numbers speak for themselves. Meanwhile, cities like Austin, TX, have shown that with relaxed zoning rules and strategic reforms, supply can surge, offering a promising roadmap.
The issues are clear:
• Restrictive zoning laws and lengthy permitting processes are throttling construction.
• High land costs and deep-seated community resistance (often summed up as NIMBYism) add further obstacles.
• Political and cultural barriers make reform as much about winning hearts and minds as it is about policy change.
Policy: The Engine of Change
If we’re serious about meeting housing demand, policy reform isn’t optional—it’s essential. Here are some key moves:
1. Zoning Reforms and Transit-Oriented Development
Drawing inspiration from policies in Massachusetts, mandating multifamily housing near transit corridors can work wonders. Imagine neighborhoods where dense, walkable communities naturally evolve around a robust mass transit system. In California, building on laws like Senate Bills 9 and 10 could open up single-family lots to denser, more affordable housing. NYC, too, can refocus its efforts by prioritizing developments near subway stations and streamlining its zoning process.
2. Streamlined Permitting
Austin’s approach is a prime example: simplifying procedures, reducing discretionary delays, and setting firm timelines can dramatically cut costs and risks for developers. Faster approvals mean more projects move off the drawing board and onto the streets.
3. Economic Incentives
To encourage developers to take the leap, offering tax credits, grants, or subsidies for affordable, transit-adjacent projects is critical. These incentives not only lower financial barriers but also spur local economies as increased foot traffic boosts nearby businesses.
Navigating Political and Cultural Hurdles
No reform agenda can succeed without winning over the public and political stakeholders. Here’s how we tackle the resistance:
• Bipartisan Engagement:
Convincing local governments, developers, and community groups requires clear, data-backed messaging. Show them that increasing supply doesn’t just mean more housing—it means stabilizing prices, reducing commute times, and boosting economic growth.
• Community Workshops and Local Aesthetics:
In many suburbs, density is viewed as a threat to neighborhood character. Engaging residents through town halls and advisory committees can help shape developments that respect local styles and improve quality of life—think of it as building the future without erasing the past.
• Cultural Shift:
Highlighting successful examples—like how walkable neighborhoods reduce traffic and enhance air quality—can shift public opinion. When people see the tangible benefits of more connected, vibrant communities, resistance tends to soften.
A Detailed Strategy for Scaling Up
Let’s dive a bit deeper into what a comprehensive strategy might look like:
1. Current Landscape and Numbers
• California:
With roughly 100,000 units built annually, reaching 400,000 will require overcoming high construction costs, zoning restrictions, and delays. Recent data even shows around 110,000 permitted units in 2023, but that’s still far short of what’s needed.
• NYC:
Averaging about 20,000 new units a year, the city must push to 80,000. Complex zoning and community board hurdles complicate the process, despite a growing need for multifamily development near transit hubs.
• Austin, TX:
By relaxing zoning rules and reducing lot sizes, Austin has boosted supply significantly. Their reforms, packaged in a Strategic Housing Blueprint, aim to create 60,000 affordable units and serve as an inspiring model.
2. Policy Recommendations
• Mandate Multifamily Development Near Transit:
Laws similar to Massachusetts’ MBTA Communities Law can require new developments near mass transit to include multifamily housing as a matter of course.
• Expedite Permitting Processes:
Reducing bureaucratic red tape and offering clear, predictable timelines can attract developers who are currently wary of the long wait times and high risks.
• Offer Economic Incentives:
Tax credits, grants, and low-interest loans can reduce the financial burden on developers, making ambitious projects more palatable.
3. Political Feasibility
• Educate Stakeholders:
Local governments, developers, and residents need to see the broader benefits—lower housing costs, more vibrant communities, and a healthier local economy.
• Build Bipartisan Support:
It’s essential to frame the housing crisis as a universal challenge. By emphasizing economic growth and community improvement, policies can garner support across the political spectrum.
4. Community Engagement
• Involve Residents from the Start:
Public workshops and town halls can turn opposition into collaboration. When residents help shape projects, developments are more likely to align with local values and aesthetics.
• Address Environmental and Social Benefits:
Walkable neighborhoods reduce vehicle use and cut emissions. Sustainable building practices, coupled with transit-oriented development, can help cities meet climate goals while improving quality of life.
The Road Ahead
Quadrupling housing construction isn’t just a pipe dream. It’s a challenge that demands systemic change—one that cuts across zoning laws, political will, cultural norms, and economic incentives. By learning from models like Austin’s and Massachusetts’ and tailoring solutions to local needs, high-cost states can finally start to close the housing gap.
We’re not looking for a magic bullet here; we’re talking about smart, sustained reforms that, over time, can reshape our cities for the better. The future of housing in our high-cost cities depends on bold ideas, deep commitment, and the courage to challenge the status quo. The path is steep, but with the right strategy, we can all get to the top.
References
For those interested in digging deeper into the data and case studies mentioned in this discussion, here are some key sources:
• California Housing Affordability Tracker 4th Quarter 2024
• California Residential Construction Starts Analysis
• Strategies to Boost Housing Production in NYC Metro Area