zero-sum thinking (the idea that if someone wins, someone else has to lose) is rising in the U.S. and Europe

TL;DR: The world is shifting to multipolar chaos. The old global order crumbled because domestic economies stopped working for people. If we don’t fix prosperity, security, and identity, we’re screwed. Anyway, that’s the situation. We can build a better system, but it starts at home. Or we can keep acting surprised when people vote for chaos. Your move.

“The old world is dying, and the new struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters.” – Gramsci (allegedly).

Yeah, buddy, welcome to now. The world order that ran the past century is on its last legs, and the new one ain’t ready yet. This whole thing was built on two key moments.

1945: The U.S. and its allies set up the rules—UN, IMF, World Bank, all that jazz.

1989: The Berlin Wall falls. West says, Game over, we win! and globalization goes into overdrive.

For decades, we lived in a world where America played security guard, globalization made stuff cheap, and everyone (theoretically) got along. Then—shock!—it turns out “economic interdependence” doesn’t magically erase geopolitical beefs. Now? Welcome to multipolar mayhem.

China, Russia, India, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, the Gulf states—all saying, Yeah, we’re not playing by your rules anymore.

Meanwhile, the whole “international community” thing? Looking kinda shaky.

Rich countries hoarded COVID vaccines.

Selective outrage—Ukraine war? Big deal. Sudan, Gaza? Meh.

U.S. elections basically a coin flip on whether America nopes out of global leadership.

So, where does this go? Here are your options:

The Wild West: No rules, just power. Bad for small countries.

Regional Blocs: U.S. in the Americas, China in Asia, Russia doing…whatever Russia does.

New Rules-Based Order: The dream scenario—but making that happen? Good luck.

Step one: Figure out why the old system is falling apart.

Developing countries never really got a seat at the table.

In the rich world, social contracts crumbled.

Social contracts? Yeah, that unspoken agreement that says, Work hard, follow the rules, and you’ll be okay.

Except…people aren’t okay.

If you were born in the West after 1980, you got hit with:

Wage stagnation

Sky-high housing costs

Student debt

Healthcare that bankrupts you for having a broken arm

Ask parents in the U.S., Europe, Japan: Will your kids be better off than you?

Overwhelming answer: Nope.

Ask parents in India, China, or Africa? They say Hell yeah.

That’s why zero-sum thinking (the idea that if someone wins, someone else has to lose) is rising in the U.S. and Europe.

When people feel screwed, they stop believing in “a rising tide lifts all boats” and start thinking “I gotta get mine before someone else takes it.”

A Harvard/LSE study found people with a zero-sum mindset support:

More government redistribution

More affirmative action

And more restrictive immigration policies

That’s why modern politics is a mess.

When people feel insecure, they don’t think “How do we grow the pie?”They think “Who’s taking my slice?”

Solution? Fix the damn social contract so people don’t feel like the system is rigged against them.

Because when people feel secure, they support cooperation, openness, and progress.

The new social contract has three pillars:

Prosperity (aka, growth that actually benefits people)

Security (so losing your job doesn’t mean losing everything)

Identity (because, shocker, people need a sense of belonging)

Prosperity:

You can’t sell people on a better future if they don’t see one.

Growth matters—but so does making sure everyone can access it.

Security:

Everyone should have a floor they can’t fall below

That doesn’t mean handouts for the rich (cough universal basic incomecough), but it does mean:

Minimum income support.

Universal healthcare.

A retirement system that doesn’t suck.

Identity:

This is the glue that holds societies together.

People need to feel like they’re part of a collective story—not just economic units competing in a free-for-all.

This is why immigration debates are so heated. It’s not just about economics; it’s about who belongs.You can show people all the charts saying “immigrants boost GDP”, and they’ll still worry about culture, values, and fairness.

So yeah, we’re in the middle of a global reordering, and the old system is cracking.

If we don’t rebuild domestic social contracts, people will turn inward.

If countries turn inward, global cooperation falls apart.

And when that happens? Chaos.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/strong-national-social-contracts-needed-for-global-cooperation-by-minouche-shafik-2025-02