The Migration Paradox: A Sherlock Holmes Deduction
Setting: A sleek penthouse office overlooking downtown Los Angeles. Multiple screens display real-time economic data, immigration statistics, and news feeds. Holmes paces before a wall of monitors while Watson reviews documents at a glass desk. The late afternoon sun casts long shadows through floor-to-ceiling windows.
HOLMES: [Spinning suddenly from the monitors] Wrong! Completely, catastrophically wrong, John. Look at this data. Really look at it.
WATSON: [Glancing up from his tablet] The immigration numbers? They’re doing exactly what the politicians promised. Net migration to America dropped from 4 million to 600,000. Britain’s numbers halved. Canada’s down from 420,000 to 60,000. Trump delivered on his border security promises.
HOLMES: [Sharp laugh] Delivered? Oh, he delivered something alright. But not what he promised. [Gestures at screens showing wage and unemployment data] Tell me, what should we be seeing if the standard economic logic were correct?
WATSON: Well… fewer immigrants competing for jobs should mean higher wages for American workers. Less demand for housing should bring rents down. Basic supply and demand.
HOLMES: Exactly! Elementary economics. Textbook theory. And yet… [Points to wage growth charts] Wage growth is declining across advanced economies, not rising. Canada’s unemployment has jumped two percentage points – one of the worst performances among rich countries. Even in occupations with high foreign-born worker shares – drywall installers, janitors – wage growth has weakened as migration calmed.
WATSON: [Standing, moving closer to the screens] That’s… that doesn’t make sense. Less competition should mean…
HOLMES: Should mean higher wages, yes! But you’re thinking like a politician, not like a detective. You’re seeing immigrants as simple competitors for a fixed pool of jobs. Wrong assumption! [Pulls up construction industry data] What if I told you that immigrant drywall installer doesn’t just compete for jobs – he creates them? He runs a crew, employs native apprentices, buys equipment from local suppliers, subcontracts to other trades.
WATSON: [Realization dawning] The economic multiplier effect. They’re not just workers, they’re…
HOLMES: Economic nodes! Demand generators! [Rapidly switching between news headlines] “East LA Hardware Store Closes: Lost Our Contractor Clients.” “Small Trucking Firm Lays Off: Less Construction Runs.” The immigrant who gets deported doesn’t just lose his job – he eliminates the three native jobs his business supported. The taqueria that closes after losing kitchen staff? There go the native cashiers, the local suppliers, the delivery drivers.
WATSON: [Studying rental price data] But housing, Sherlock. Surely with fewer people demanding apartments, rents should be falling? J.D. Vance built his whole campaign on that connection.
HOLMES: [Whirling around] Did he now? And what does the data show? [Highlighting rental inflation figures] Rental inflation still running at 5% year-over-year. House prices rising in the very markets seeing the sharpest migration declines. Los Angeles, Phoenix, Miami – all experiencing the border crackdown, all seeing continued housing price acceleration.
WATSON: [Frowning] But that research was solid. The meta-analysis showed a 1% increase in migrants leads to a 0.5-1% rise in rents.
HOLMES: Correlation noted, causation questioned! Yes, migrants increase housing demand. But who builds the housing, John? [Brings up construction workforce demographics] Who frames the walls, pours the foundations, installs the drywall? Look at these construction sites – [Drone footage of stalled developments] – half-finished, workers gone, projects abandoned.
WATSON: [Eyes widening] The construction workforce. Heavily immigrant. You remove the demand and cripple the supply simultaneously.
HOLMES: Precisely! The policy designed to lower housing costs by reducing demand simultaneously strangles the supply pipeline needed to actually bring prices down. It’s economic self-sabotage masquerading as economic policy.
WATSON: [Sinking into a chair] So the politicians who promised to fix wages and housing costs by controlling immigration…
HOLMES: Have created the exact opposite of what they promised. [Leaning against the window, silhouetted against the LA skyline] They pulled a thread they thought was loose, John, and unraveled the entire fabric. The 2022-23 immigration surge wasn’t just random population growth – it was the labor force rebuilding after COVID, filling critical gaps, creating businesses, generating demand that employed natives in higher-skilled roles.
WATSON: And now?
HOLMES: [Turning back to face the room] Now they’ve won their political battle and lost the economic war. Migration is plummeting globally – America, Britain, Canada, New Zealand. The deportation flights are up 25%. The border crossings have virtually stopped. They can claim victory on their core promise.
WATSON: But the consequences…
HOLMES: Ah, the consequences! [Moving to stand before the data wall] That’s where it gets interesting, John. How do they explain stagnant wages after “protecting American jobs”? How do they justify persistent high rents after “reducing housing demand”? How do they fund pensions for an aging population after removing the young workers who pay into the system?
WATSON: [Looking out at the city] The demographic cliff. Low birth rates, aging populations…
HOLMES: Exactly! Western societies were already facing a dependency crisis – too few workers supporting too many retirees. Immigration was the relief valve. Remove it violently, and you don’t just create an economic problem – you accelerate a demographic catastrophe. Fewer taxpayers, more dependents, strained healthcare systems, underfunded pensions.
WATSON: And the politicians who promised this would improve living standards?
HOLMES: [A cold smile] Are about to discover that governing is harder than campaigning. The data doesn’t lie, John. The experiment is running in real-time across the Western world. The hypothesis – that removing immigrants improves native living standards – is being systematically falsified by reality itself.
WATSON: [After a long pause] What happens next?
HOLMES: [Staring out at the sprawling city below] Now comes the fascinating part. They’ve achieved their stated goal – controlled immigration, secured borders, mass deportations. They can’t blame the “invasion” anymore. They own the results. Every stagnant wage, every high rent, every labor shortage, every demographic pressure point is now theirs to explain and solve.
WATSON: Without the very people whose departure was supposed to fix everything.
HOLMES: [Nodding slowly] Welcome to the paradox of getting exactly what you asked for, John. Los Angeles isn’t just witnessing an immigration crackdown – it’s becoming a laboratory for the unintended consequences of populist economic theory meeting complex reality. The deduction is complete. The case is closed. The only question remaining is whether anyone will pay attention to the evidence.