The Case of the Restricted Dwelling
[Scene: Suburb. Evening. SHERLOCK paces manically around the McMansion, surrounded by maps of various cities with colored zones marked on them. Property listings and zoning ordinances are pinned to the wall. WATSON sits in his armchair, typing on his laptop.]
SHERLOCK: (abruptly stopping his pacing) It's a perfect crime, Watson.
WATSON: (looking up, confused) What crime? We don't have a case.
SHERLOCK: (eyes wild) Oh, but we do! The most insidious kind. No body, no weapon, no suspect—and yet millions of victims!
WATSON: (sighs, closes laptop) Alright, I'll bite. What are you on about?
SHERLOCK: (dramatically gesturing at the maps) Single-family zoning, Watson! The invisible strangler of the housing market!
WATSON: (bemused) Zoning laws? That's your big mystery? Not exactly a triple homicide in a locked room, is it?
SHERLOCK: (irritated) Your obsession with the sensational blinds you to the truly fascinating crimes, Watson. This is Milton Friedman's rent control paradox playing out before our very eyes! (begins pacing again, faster)
WATSON: Friedman? The economist? What's he got to do with neighborhood planning?
SHERLOCK: (spins around, pointing accusingly) Everything! Friedman identified how rent control—a policy ostensibly designed to help people—actually strangles the very market it aims to protect. (rapidly taps different zones on the map) Single-family zoning operates by the same deceptive logic!
WATSON: But zoning's just about keeping neighborhoods nice, isn't it? You know, preventing factories next to schools and all that?
SHERLOCK: (laughs sharply) Oh, Watson, you see but you do not observe! That's what they want you to think—the perfect alibi! (suddenly kneels in front of Watson) Tell me, how much is a flat in central London these days?
WATSON: (uncomfortable with Sherlock's proximity) Astronomical. You know I could never afford—
SHERLOCK: (interrupts, jumping up) Precisely! And San Francisco? New York? Tokyo? Vancouver? (doesn't wait for an answer) All suffering from the same affliction—housing costs spiraling beyond reason. (dramatically) But why?
WATSON: (shrugs) Lots of people want to live there? Supply and demand?
SHERLOCK: (points triumphantly) Half right! Demand, yes. But supply? (slams hand on table) Supply has been murdered, Watson! And the weapon? (holds up zoning map like evidence) Single-family zoning!
WATSON: (trying to follow) I don't see how preventing a few apartment buildings—
SHERLOCK: (interrupts again) Not a few, Watson! Vast swathes of urban land—70% in Los Angeles, 80% in Seattle—locked away, accessible only to those who can afford detached houses on large plots! (mimics locking a door and throwing away key)
Look at this map! (unfurls a color-coded zoning map) All the yellow? Single-family only. No duplexes. No townhomes. No modest apartments. (intensely) Just like rent control prevents new rental housing by capping profits, single-family zoning prevents density by force of law!
WATSON: (beginning to understand) So... we're artificially restricting how many homes can be built?
SHERLOCK: (claps sarcastically) Bravo, Watson! The light dawns! (resumes pacing) Friedman showed that rent control, while claiming to help tenants, actually decimates the rental market. Landlords convert to condos, stop maintaining buildings, cease new construction—why bother when returns are capped?
With zoning, it's the same perverse effect! Developers can't build affordable multi-unit housing where land is expensive because it's illegal—not unprofitable, not unwanted—ILLEGAL!
WATSON: But people like their quiet neighborhoods. They bought in expecting—
SHERLOCK: (interrupts with a dismissive wave) Sentiment masquerading as policy, Watson! (mockingly) "I bought my home expecting nothing would ever change!" (normal voice) The same argument was made for rent control—"I expect my rent to stay fixed forever!"
Both ignore the collective consequence: a housing market that strangles itself! (pulls up images on his phone) Look at these historical documents—many single-family zones were explicitly created to keep out "undesirables." (makes air quotes)
WATSON: You mean...?
SHERLOCK: (darkly) Yes. Economic and racial segregation wearing the respectable mask of "neighborhood character." The perfect crime—discriminatory in effect while seemingly neutral in intent.
WATSON: (troubled) That's a serious accusation, Sherlock.
SHERLOCK: (intensely) Facts, Watson! Data! History! (taps rapidly on his phone, then shows Watson various graphs) Housing costs rising faster than incomes, homelessness growing, young families priced out—all while vast land remains locked in artificial scarcity!
WATSON: (thoughtfully) So what's the solution? Just... abolish all zoning?
SHERLOCK: (rolls eyes) Don't be obtuse, Watson. Reasonable limitations on truly incompatible uses? Fine. But the blanket prohibition on anything but detached single-family homes? (makes explosion gesture with hands) It must go!
WATSON: And what happens then? Won't neighborhoods change?
SHERLOCK: (excitedly) That's precisely the point! They'll become more accessible, more diverse, more alive! (gestures to another map) Minneapolis did it—ended single-family zoning citywide in 2019. The sky didn't fall! (dramatically) Instead, housing permits increased, especially for affordable units!
WATSON: (playing devil's advocate) But what about property values? Won't homeowners lose out?
SHERLOCK: (scoffs) The truth emerges! The real motive for the crime—protection of artificial asset inflation! (mockingly) "I deserve my home value to increase regardless of market forces!" (normal voice) Friedman would call them rent-seekers, Watson—profiting from artificial scarcity they did nothing to earn!
WATSON: (nods slowly) So both rent control and single-family zoning try to help certain groups...
SHERLOCK: (finishes the thought) ...while ultimately harming everyone else! The economics are elementary, but the politics? (grimaces) Diabolical! Existing homeowners vote. Would-be residents don't. It's the perfect self-perpetuating crime!
WATSON: (impressed despite himself) You've really thought this through.
SHERLOCK: (suddenly calm) The biggest mysteries are often hiding in plain sight, Watson. Not in dark alleys or locked rooms, but in mundane policies with extraordinary consequences. (stares intensely at zoning map)
This case reveals a fundamental truth: good intentions don't guarantee good outcomes. Whether it's rent control or single-family zoning, when you restrict the market's ability to respond to demand, you don't solve problems—you create them.
WATSON: (standing up) Well, fascinating as this is, I was rather hoping for a case with, you know, actual danger. A murder, maybe?
SHERLOCK: (suddenly grinning) Oh, but this is far more interesting than a mere murder, Watson! This is systemic failure masquerading as public good! (dramatically) And unlike your pedestrian homicides, this crime has millions of victims who don't even know they're being victimized!
WATSON: (sighs) Right. Tea?
SHERLOCK: (already back to studying the maps, distracted) The game is afoot, Watson! Or rather... (looks up with a manic grin) the housing is unbuilt!
[WATSON shakes his head and walks to the kitchen as SHERLOCK frantically begins rearranging his zoning maps, muttering about density coefficients and shadow pricing.]