Sherlock: THE GLOBAL DEDUCTION
Our scene opens with an establishing shot of an opulent Florida estate. Palm trees sway against a brilliant blue sky. The camera pans down to reveal Sherlock Holmes and John Watson sitting by an extravagant swimming pool. Sherlock looks uncomfortable in the heat, wearing his usual suit despite the tropical weather. Watson is in a casual short-sleeved shirt, enjoying a cold drink.
SHERLOCK: (staring intently at his phone) Boring. Predictable. Dull. (swipes) Oh! (sits up straight) Now that's interesting.
WATSON: (lowering his sunglasses) What is? And remind me again why we're in Florida instead of Baker Street?
SHERLOCK: (not looking up) Mycroft. Something about diplomatic relations and a favor. I wasn't listening. More importantly, John, the global reserve currency is collapsing.
WATSON: (chokes on his drink) Sorry, what?
SHERLOCK: (sighs dramatically) The global reserve currency, John. The dominant currency used in international transactions. Currently the US dollar. Do keep up.
WATSON: Yes, I know what a reserve currency is. I meant why do you suddenly care about macroeconomics?
SHERLOCK: (jumping up and pacing) Because it's a murder, John!
WATSON: (confused) A murder?
SHERLOCK: The murder of American exceptionalism! (gestures grandly) Look around you. What do you see?
WATSON: (glancing around) An obscenely large estate with gold-plated everything?
SHERLOCK: Precisely! And what does that tell you about the person who lives here?
WATSON: That they have more money than taste?
SHERLOCK: (smiles) Yes, but more importantly—insecurity. A desperate need to project power and wealth. Just like this country is doing on the global stage right now.
Sherlock walks to a nearby table where financial newspapers are spread out. He picks one up dramatically.
WATSON: (following) Hang on, are you saying America is behaving like an emerging market?
SHERLOCK: (pointing at Watson) Very good, John! There's hope for you yet.
WATSON: (ignoring the backhanded compliment) But that's ridiculous. The dollar has been the world's reserve currency since the Bretton Woods Agreement after World War II. It's the foundation of global trade.
SHERLOCK: (nodding approvingly) Your history is surprisingly accurate. Yes, and do you know what that position gives America?
WATSON: (thinking) Well, I suppose it means they can borrow more cheaply than other countries. And they can print money without the same inflationary consequences.
SHERLOCK: "Exorbitant privilege," John! The term coined by Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, French Minister of Finance in the 1960s. The ability to run massive deficits without immediate consequences. The capacity to impose economic sanctions on enemies. The power to denominate critical commodities like oil in your currency.
Sherlock begins arranging the newspapers in a particular pattern on the table.
WATSON: (leaning forward) But surely that can't just... end? The entire global financial system depends on it.
SHERLOCK: (holding up a financial chart) Look at these market indicators. The bond yields remained elevated even as equities enjoyed their post-election bump. What does that tell you?
WATSON: That... investors are nervous?
SHERLOCK: (excitedly) Yes! But more specifically, the bond market—which is always smarter than the equity market—has been signaling distrust in America's fiscal responsibility for months. And now—
Sherlock dramatically pulls out his phone, showing Watson a chart.
SHERLOCK: —we're seeing what happens when political chaos converges with economic vulnerability.
WATSON: (examining the chart) These correlations between political risk and currency values... they're negative.
SHERLOCK: (triumphantly) Exactly as you'd see in Brazil! Or Turkey! Or Russia! Not in a mature, stable economy. The current administration's erratic trade policies—threatening allies and adversaries alike with punitive tariffs without warning—has finally pierced the veil of invulnerability.
WATSON: (sitting down) But that's terrifying, Sherlock. If America loses its exorbitant privilege...
SHERLOCK: (completing the thought) ...then the entire global economic system reorients. Possibly violently.
Watson stares into the distance, processing this.
WATSON: I remember in Afghanistan, we had this commander who would deliberately drive recklessly toward oncoming vehicles, saying the other driver would always swerve first.
SHERLOCK: (nodding) Game theory. Whoever appears most irrational holds the advantage.
WATSON: Until they don't. One day he miscalculated and drove us into a ditch. (pause) You really think America's heading for a ditch?
SHERLOCK: The evidence suggests it. Look at the symptoms: uncertain economics, corrupt politics, weak institutions, social polarization. Classic emerging market pathology.
Sherlock begins arranging the newspapers in a pattern again, this time forming what looks like a timeline.
WATSON: (alarmed) But if America becomes the epicenter of the next emerging market-style debt crisis...
SHERLOCK: The ripple effects would be catastrophic. China won't back down. CEOs are finally realizing tax cuts don't compensate for systemic instability. The bond selloff during the equity rout last week tells us investors are either liquidating safe assets to cover losses or—more worryingly—they no longer consider US bonds the ultimate safe haven.
WATSON: (rubbing his forehead) Jesus. So what's the endgame here?
SHERLOCK: (with sudden intensity) That's what I'm trying to determine!
He jumps up and begins pacing again, hands steepled under his chin in his classic thinking pose.
WATSON: (after a moment) Could this be deliberate? I mean, if someone wanted to destabilize global markets...
SHERLOCK: (stops pacing, looks at Watson with newfound respect) Very good question, John. Who benefits from American economic instability?
WATSON: Rival powers. Authoritarian regimes that have chafed under American economic dominance.
SHERLOCK: (nodding) And certain domestic actors who profit from volatility and chaos. The more a leader rules by personality cult rather than institutional norms, the more economic outcomes are determined by individual whim.
WATSON: (sardonically) So we're looking at Caligula capitalism, then?
SHERLOCK: (smirks) Aptly put. A system where market movements follow presidential tweets and pronouncements rather than fundamentals. Where cabinet members defend policies that are reversed hours later.
Sherlock begins texting rapidly.
WATSON: What are you doing?
SHERLOCK: Texting Mycroft. He needs to move his assets into cash and gold until at least the midterm elections.
WATSON: (surprised) You're giving your brother financial advice?
SHERLOCK: (grimacing) As loath as I am to help him, this affects everyone. The capriciousness we're witnessing will have long-lasting effects, particularly after those tax cuts create an unsustainable debt picture.
A staff member approaches with a tray of drinks. Sherlock waves them away impatiently.
WATSON: (contemplative) You know, when I was in medical school, we learned about how symptoms persist long after the disease is gone. The body remembers trauma.
SHERLOCK: (softly) As will the global economy, John. As will the global economy.
Sherlock walks to the edge of the pool and looks out over the water, his reflection rippling on the surface.
WATSON: What's your final deduction then?
SHERLOCK: (turning dramatically) The most dangerous criminal is the one who believes they're above the law. Similarly, the most dangerous economy is one that believes it's exceptional regardless of its actions. America's exorbitant privilege wasn't a birthright—it was earned through institutional strength and fiscal discipline. And now...
He gestures around at the gaudy estate
SHERLOCK: ...it's being squandered for gold-plated taps and the illusion of winning.
https://www.ft.com/content/e7a0af16-6ecf-4e04-8fa3-4de5646e8d58