Carmunism

 Is Carmunism really costing America $1.2 trillion–$1.8 trillion a year? Or a real market where drivers pay the true price, and the rest of us can breathe, walk, bike, and live healthier, less expensive lives?

Carmunism is the policy‑driven, subsidy‑heavy system that makes driving “cheap”, while socializing road costs, parking, pollution, and health burdens. Think “free” parking, underpriced gas, and endless highway budgets.

Direct Spending (≈ $100 billion)

• Federal highways: $50 billion / yr

• State & local roads (gap not covered by gas tax): $30–$40 billion / yr

• EV credits + oil/auto tax breaks: ~$10 billion / yr

Total: ≈ $90–$100 billion in visible subsidies.

Price Distortions (≈ $120 billion)

• Gas tax shortfall: Since 1993, 18.4¢/gal hasn’t matched inflation—lost revenue ~$40 billion / yr.

• “Free” Parking: Urban land economists estimate $60–$100 billion / yr in subsidized parking (land value, mandates). Using a mid‑range, $80 billion.

Land Use & Housing (≈ $500–$600 billion)

• Sprawl Penalty: Some estimates peg lost GDP from low‑density zoning at $500 billion–$1 trillion/year, but causation is debated. Using a conservative $500 billion.

• Road/parking land value: If 30% of urban land were priced at market rates (~$15/ft²), that’s $100 billion in annual “lost rent.”

Total: $600 billion, noting modeling uncertainties.

Externalities (≈ $720 billion)

• Carbon emissions: 1.5 billion tons × $75/ton (mid‑range SCC) = $112 billion.

• Air pollution health: Estimates vary $100–$200 billion / yr; pick a conservative $120 billion.

• Congestion: INRIX reports $80 billion / yr in wasted time & fuel.

• Traffic crashes (direct): NHTSA: $340 billion / yr (medical, legal, productivity).

Subtotal: $652 billion.

Health & Obesity Costs

• Some attribute $170–$200 billion / yr in obesity‑related medical costs and $100 billion in inactivity beyond that. But not all is directly due to car dependency; diet, genetics, and other factors matter. If we conservatively allocate $150 billion to built‑environment impacts, we acknowledge attribution is messy.

Crash QALY Valuations (Speculative)

• The often‑cited $1.37 trillion “societal harm” from crashes uses Value of Statistical Life (VSL) to monetize lost life years—a theoretical maximum, not cash changing hands. We won’t double‑count it with direct medical/productivity losses.

Aggregate Range

• Direct & Price Distortions: $100 B + $120 B = $220 B

• Land Use & Housing: $600 B (with modeling caveats)

• Externalities (incl. carbon, pollution, congestion, crashes): $652 B

• Health/Obesity (attributable piece): $150 B

Total: ≈ $1.62 trillion / yr.

Factor in uncertainties → $1.2–$1.8 trillion.

Not all obesity/inactivity is car‑driven—some comes from diet, job type, genetics. So we allocate a portion (~$150 billion) to auto‑oriented environments.

• Land‑Use Estimates: The $500 billion–$1 trillion GDP loss from sprawl is built on complex models. A midpoint ($500 billion) is more cautious.

• Parking Subsidies: $80 billion–$100 billion/yr is widely cited, but it depends on land value assumptions. Key takeaway: parking is far underpriced.

• Social Cost of Carbon (SCC): We used $75/ton. Using $190/ton (upper bound) pushes carbon costs to $285 billion—but most budgets use $50–$100/ton.

• Air Pollution Costs: Studies range $100 billion–$200 billion. We picked $120 billion. Real world effects vary by region and regulation.

• Cronyism, Not Free‑Markets: Highway & parking subsidies are crony giveaways to Big Auto & Big Oil—result: $220 billion+/yr in direct ripouts.

• Inefficient Spending: $600 billion annual housing/sprawl drag could fund real infrastructure reforms or tax cuts.

• Hidden Tax: You think you’re paying for gas and insurance? Add another $5,000 per household in uncounted costs—no transparency, no accountability.

Key Fixes

• Index Gas Tax to inflation or switch to VMT (Vehicle Miles Traveled) charges—close $40 billion annual shortfall.

• Market‑Rate Parking: Auction curb space, scrap minimum‑parking mandates—reclaim $80 billion for better uses.

• Zoning Reform: Allow duplexes, triplexes, mixed‑use by right. Shrink setbacks and lane widths to cut sprawl costs.

• Carbon Pricing: Even $75/ton on CO₂ would fund $112 billion in cleaner alternatives.

• Reallocate Funding: Mandate 20–30% of transport budgets to transit, biking, walking—stimulate healthier, more efficient cities.

Is a true‑cost system—where drivers pay full road, parking, pollution, and health costs—a conservative win for transparency, smaller government, and personal accountability? Or will we keep tolerating $1.6 trillion+ in hidden subsidies and missed opportunities? The choice is ours.